Trade is the backbone of the global economy, driving growth, creating jobs, and providing consumers with access to a variety of products at competitive prices.

However, when trade tensions escalate into trade wars, the smooth flow of international commerce is disrupted, often leading to widespread economic consequences.

This article explores how and why trade wars occur, their impact on industries, and why global trade plays such an essential role in the world economy.

What Are Trade Wars and Why Do They Happen?

A trade war occurs when countries impose tariffs (taxes on imports), quotas, or other trade barriers against one another in retaliation for perceived unfair trade practices or to protect domestic industries.

While the intention is often to protect local economies, trade wars can escalate and cause broader economic harm.

Some of the most common reasons trade wars arise are due to:

• Trade imbalances
  •  Efforts by governments to reduce large gaps between imports and exports.
• Protection of domestic industries
  •  Shielding local jobs and businesses from foreign competition.
• Intellectual property disputes
  • Responding to theft or misuse of technology and patents.
• Political or geopolitical tensions
  • Using trade as leverage during broader diplomatic disputes.

Trade wars usually end in one of three ways:

1. One country unilaterally withdraws tariffs to de-escalate tensions.
2. Both parties negotiate an agreement, compromising on key issues.
3. In extreme cases, conflicts can escalate politically or militarily, though modern international treaties and diplomatic efforts generally work to prevent such severe outcomes.

Impact on Prices, Industries, and Consumers

Trade wars can significantly affect economies, industries, and consumers both in the short- and long-term. Key impacts can include:

Higher consumer costs

Tariffs raise the cost of imports, which businesses often pass on to customers. Everyday goods, such as groceries, clothing, and technology, can become more expensive, reducing household purchasing power.

Supply chain disruptions

Global supply chains become less efficient, leading to delays and increased operational costs.

Rising inflation and squeezed profit margins

Higher import costs can fuel inflation, reducing consumer purchasing power and eroding corporate profits as businesses face increased costs, ultimately affecting jobs and company valuations.

Retaliatory measures

Countries hit with tariffs may impose their own in response, further disrupting international trade and hurting export-dependent industries that rely heavily on foreign markets for revenue.

Slower economic growth

Trade restrictions reduce global commerce, often dampening GDP growth, and can hinder business expansion and consumer spending over time.

Market volatility

Uncertainty surrounding trade policies can cause significant fluctuations in stock markets, affecting investments.

While these outcomes are generally negative for global commerce, there can be domestic benefits:

Boost to local manufacturing

Higher import costs may encourage companies to produce locally.

Job creation in domestic industries

Factory employment can rise as businesses increase local production to replace more expensive imports.

Why Global Trade Matters

International trade contributes to nearly 60% of global GDP, making it essential for economic stability and growth. The value of global trade is reflected in several key ways, including:

• Greater consumer choice
  • Access to a variety of goods at more competitive prices.
• Economic growth
  • Expands markets for producers, stimulating job creation and driving growth.
• Increased efficiency
  • Global supply chains and specialisation lower production costs.
• Enhanced competition
  • Drives innovation and improves product quality.

Trade wars often diminish these advantages, resulting in higher prices, reduced economic cooperation, and slower growth.

Consumers can feel the effects most acutely through increased costs for everyday goods and weakened purchasing power.

Long-Term Implications

Prolonged trade disputes can reshape the global economy, with consequences that extend well beyond immediate price increases and market disruptions.

Some possible long-term effects include:

• Shift in global supply chains
  • Companies may relocate manufacturing to avoid tariffs, potentially raising production costs.
• Reduced global cooperation
  • Trade tensions can spill over into diplomatic relations, hindering collaboration on global challenges.
• Changes in consumer behaviour
  • Higher prices may reduce spending, impacting economic recovery.
• Economic decoupling
  • Countries may reduce reliance on foreign trade partners, leading to fragmented global markets.
• Domestic economic shifts
  • While some industries benefit from renewed local demand, others may suffer from export restrictions and input cost increases.

Will Trade Wars Impact Your Investments?

Trade wars do not just affect governments and corporations, they can impact your investments, purchasing power, and long-term financial planning.

As global markets remain interconnected, understanding these dynamics is crucial for navigating financial markets and protecting your financial interests.

At Patterson Mills, we help our clients understand how global economic factors, including trade wars, can impact their financial plans. Whether you are looking to safeguard your investments, plan for international exposure, or simply gain clarity on how global events affect your portfolio, our team is here to guide you.

Get in touch with us today to learn how we can support you to a brighter financial future amid an ever-changing global landscape.

E-mail to contactus@pattersonmills.ch or call +41 (0) 21 801 36 84 and we shall be pleased to assist you.